Bought Your Chandler or Tempe Home Near the 2022 Peak? Can You Sell Without Losing Money?

Oct 13

Maybe. Whether you can sell a Chandler or Tempe home bought near the 2022 peak without losing money depends on your home, not the headlines. Metro-wide, Phoenix home values are about 10.9% below their July 2022 peak according to Zillow, but $1M+ homes in South Chandler and South Tempe don't move in lockstep with the metro. To find your real number, take today's likely sale price, subtract your loan payoff and selling costs, and see what's left.

How far have Phoenix home values fallen since 2022?

The Zillow Home Value Index for the Phoenix metro peaked at $501,854 in July 2022. In June 2026, it was $447,054. That's about 10.9% below the peak.

Before that number ruins your afternoon, look at what it measures. It's metro-wide. It covers all home types and tracks the middle tier of the market. So it describes a typical Phoenix-area home, not a $1.3 million home on a lake lot in Ocotillo or on an acre in South Tempe.

$1M+ homes in South Chandler and South Tempe behave differently from the metro average. Fewer of them sell, and each one has more that makes it unique. Your home might be up, flat, or down from what you paid. The only way to know is to look at your home specifically.

How do you figure out what you'd actually walk away with?

Skip the headlines and do the math on your own house. It's simpler than it sounds.

Start with today's likely sale price. Not your Zestimate, and not what you paid. A real number based on recent closed sales of similar homes and what's for sale right now. Online estimates can miss by a lot at this price, which I explain in why your Zestimate is off on a $1M+ home.

Subtract your loan payoff. This is what you still owe, which is likely less than what you borrowed. Every payment since you bought has paid down some principal. Ask your lender for an official payoff figure, since it's more accurate than your last statement.

Subtract your selling costs. That includes agent compensation, title and escrow fees, repairs you agree to after the inspection, and anything you offer the buyer toward their costs. Your agent should be able to give you an estimate for your specific home before you decide anything.

What's left is your net. If the net is below zero, you'd bring cash to closing to pay off the loan. That's much better to learn at your kitchen table than at the title company.

Then compare your net to what you've put into the home: your down payment, the principal you've paid down, and money spent on improvements. That comparison is your real gain or loss.

A word on improvements. If you redid the kitchen or added a pool, that money counts in your math, and it may help your sale price. But improvements don't always come back dollar for dollar. Keep your receipts and ask a tax pro how they apply to your situation.

Should you sell now, rent it out, or wait?

There's no one right answer. Here's how I'd think about each choice.

Sell now if you need to move. A new job, a family change, a home that no longer fits. Life doesn't wait for the market to recover. And if you're buying again in the same area, keep in mind that the same market setting your sale price also sets the price of your next home. If you're moving up, a softer market can help on the buying side. If that's your plan, read whether to sell first or buy first.

Rent it out if the numbers work and you're okay being a landlord. Run the math before you decide. Compare what the home would rent for with your full monthly cost: mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and upkeep. If the rent doesn't cover it, you're paying every month to hold the house. Some HOAs limit rentals, so read yours first.

Wait if you don't need to move. This is a real answer, and I'd give it to you. If you like the home, the payment is comfortable, and you're happy with your interest rate, staying put might be the smartest thing you do this year.

Just know that waiting is a bet too. Nobody can promise prices will be higher in two years. I can't, and I'd be wary of anyone who does.

What if you have to sell and the numbers are tight?

Then the goal is the highest net, which isn't always the same as the highest price.

Price it right from day one. Overpricing to "leave room" tends to backfire on a home that needs every dollar. A listing that sits tends to collect offers that reflect it.

Spend money only where buyers will notice. Fresh paint, small repairs, a deep clean, and great photos. Skip the big remodel. It's a lot of money and months of work for a buyer who might want a different kitchen anyway.

Read the whole offer. A slightly lower price with fewer repair requests and no seller-paid costs might put more money in your pocket than a higher price with a long list of asks.

And get your numbers early, even if you're not ready to list. Here's what to do now if you're thinking about selling but not ready. For a read on current prices in your area, see the South Tempe market update for October 2026.

I've been a REALTOR here since 2011. My advice for this situation stays simple: know your own number before you make any decision about the house.

Quick answers

Have home prices dropped in Phoenix since 2022?

Metro-wide, yes. Zillow's Home Value Index for Phoenix was about 10.9% below its July 2022 peak as of June 2026, though individual neighborhoods and price ranges vary.

Will I lose money if I sell my house now?

It depends on your sale price, loan payoff, and selling costs, not the metro average. Subtract your payoff and selling costs from a realistic sale price, then compare that to what you've put into the home.

Is it better to rent out my house or sell it?

Renting makes sense only if the rent covers your full monthly cost and you're comfortable being a landlord. If it doesn't, you'd be paying each month to keep the house.

If you bought near the peak and want to know your real number before you decide anything, I'll run it with you. Call or text me at 480-448-2020, or book a time to talk.

Ben Graham

You’ve made it. Now you want a home that finally feels like it.

Since 2011, I’ve helped move-up and move-in buyers do exactly that across South Tempe and South Chandler. More land, more quiet, more character, without leaving the city behind. If you’re buying or selling above $1M in South Tempe or South Chandler, you want an advisor who knows the ground, not a salesperson who knows a script.

That’s the whole job, and it’s the part I love most.

Book a Phone Consultation

Ben is a husband, father, and full-time real estate advisor based in Chandler. Since 2011, across more than 500 transactions, he’s guided buyers and sellers through the Southeast Valley’s best neighborhoods.

His approach is simple: teach the market like a teacher, protect your equity like it’s his own, and tell you the truth even when the truth is “wait.” Clear communication, a proven plan, and your interests first.

Most of Ben’s clients fall into two camps.

The move-up buyer who’s outgrown a great starter home in Chandler or Tempe and is ready for something that feels like an arrival. More space, more privacy, more character, same easy access to four freeways, great schools, and Sky Harbor.

The move-in buyer relocating from out of town who needs someone who actually knows which street holds its value and which one only looks like it does.

He also represents sellers across South Tempe and South Chandler who want their home priced right in week one and marketed like the asset it is.

Faith and family are the center of how Ben lives and works. He’s a follower of Christ, a husband, and a father, raising his kids in Chandler with his wife Sarah. The family is active at CCV, the kids attend Valley Christian, and they support foster care and adoption. One of their sons joined the family that way.

Clients often tell Ben his faith is part of why they trusted him with one of the biggest decisions of their lives. He doesn’t take that lightly.

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https://www.bengrahamrealtor.com/